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Off Topic / Re: what changes as you grow older?
« on: November 17, 2022, 07:49:29 PM »
is something that has NEVER changed in my lifetime
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Surreee...different person
not to butt into the conversation since i currently haven't read the discourse between you two, but i am interested: whats your take on this, strategically? do you see it as justified or no? im of the mindset it was a necessary evil and was softened by Americas immediate relief efforts to build back Japan. i can understand that being seen as either a good or bad thing, since the reasoning could be debated that it was because even America was surprised by their own destruction, or because they saw it as an opportunity to shoe horn in their western hegemony, it still seems like it was a wildly successful effort as Japan was flourishing by the 80s per my understanding. they definitely had Americas youth by the balls with their own cultural influence. IDK, just kinda interested on your thoughts there.there is no better case study on it than this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCRTgtpC-Go it is long but worth the watch, it sheds thoroughly so much light on the total ineptitude and carelessness of every world government at that time, with primary sources cited constantly.
i agree with your opinion on the outcomes of armed conflict, but i disagree on the reasons. armies tend to bring their most expensive ordinance and the most well-funded operators of said ordinance. however, moving expensive people and weapons through a warzone is a logistics nightmare, and keeping them operational and combat-effective is difficult. the drone strikes we hear the most about in the US are the ones that target high-value leaders and end up killing civilians, but the ones that occur most frequently are supporting strikes and strafing runs for ground troops under fire.more iraqi civilians died because of desert storm than any amount of people have died due to warfare since vietnam-- topped only by the rwandan genocide only a few years later-- not even to include the US's role on both sides of the iran-iraq war. you are horribly mistaken with these bloomberg takes
during an exchange of combat, the situation may rapidly deteriorate. if soldiers are unable to maintain fire superiority and begin taking excessive casualties, air support and artillery become necessary. this is the main application of our drone program and also where the most civilian casualties end up being caused by. every second troops are on the ground and in the air, they risk dying at any moment. the air force is especially vulnerable, and portable air-to-surface missiles (even small arms fire) can destroy million dollar drones and choppers flying lower to the ground. under these stuffty conditions, soldiers' decision-making skills are disrupted, and the chances of civilian casualties climb by the second.
none of this makes it right, and there is no real excuse for civilian death. it also raises the important point that nobody would have to die if the army wasn't there in the first place. once an armed force arrives, the question is no longer 'why are we here' but 'how can we achieve our objective as fast as possible with as little casualties to our men, our enemies and civilians as possible.' this is where it helps to have a dedicated plan to minimizing losses of everyone involved.
the US certainly isn't the beacon of peace when it comes to warfare. after all, the country remains the only one in the world to have used nuclear weapons against human targets, not just once but twice. operation desert storm was a hugely successful operation compared to the nuclear bombings and the korean and vietnam wars, and the decision to knock out iraq's air superiority and comms from day one likely prevented millions of people from dying. an unsuccessful first strike would've meant that coalition troops would have to bring heavier armor into the cities and more civilians would've been displaced and killed. the decision to stay in the middle east and maintain a presence is what cost the people of iraq many more lives than necessary, and is where the US begins to look like an incompetent russia-like invader. many of the problems that remain today are directly the result of US intervention, but these losses would've been much greater had the show of force invasion failed.
i agree with this. a unique perspective perhaps, i believe strongly in the idea that invaders have a moral obligation to execute the fastest and most effective invasion possible in order to limit loss of civilian and military life.this has nothing to do with what I told you. not only is it wrong to “hope for competent invaders” when there are maybe 10 countries in the world who have put armies into foreign countries since 1993, but the US is not a “competent invader”. the fact that you quoted the drone program as some sort of tactical success for minimizing civilian casualties (see daniel hale’s drone papers) demonstrates your lack of understanding of american warfare and, more importantly, diplomacy. you said that the drone strikes are good but there’s not enough intelligence around it to confirm the target is an “unlawful enemy combatant” (lol) beforehand and afterwards, my answer is that this is by design because there is zero incentive for them to actually do this when terrorism (unlawful attacks on civilians) creates more people to spend money to kill. it’s like when an IT guy unplugs the server and plugs it back in so that he can make sure his boss doesn’t fire him because there aren’t any IT problems going on at the time he can actually fix.
the strength and finality of a first strike largely determines how many people will die in the future of the conflict. i like to look at the iraq invasion as one of the strongest shows of force followed by the weakest outreach and de-escalation efforts possible. a cohesive modern military force can execute a strong strike that knocks out most of a country's comms and air support, but the large size of an army leads to logistics and communication errors. these errors stack up leading to underequipped, outnumbered squads of soldiers prone to perpetrating war crimes. coalition soldiers quickly lost the support and positive perception of the local population, and most/all attempts to outreach and establish infrastructure with local tribes ended in civilian deaths as well as ambushes against coalition soldiers. not unlike them, russia will also be faced with a population of people who hate them and reject their presence if they do succeed at their invasion.
all invaders should have a strong and determined strike plan followed by a stronger, kinder humanitarian effort. however, most armies lack the latter and end up leaving countries in failed state status. failed states are exceptionally prone to insurgencies and terror, and fighting against these forces is arguably more complicated and resource and time consuming than planning an invasion. insult to injury, guerilla/asymmetrical warfare has never been studied well and we (the world) have very few examples from which to study. most written documents on asymmetrical warfare and counterinsurgency were written during and after the 1930s, as the gap in combat effectiveness between armies began to increase drastically with new weaponry. ironically, i live in a country founded on independence, militia and insurgency that actively tries to prevent other countries from reaching the same goal. you think with a history so embedded in asymmetrical warfare, the government would plan counterinsurgencies that were more effective and less detrimental to civilian life. instead, Americans are generally remembered in most parts of the middle east and south america as imperialistic invaders and not freedom fighters.
in the coming years, invasions around the pacific are highly likely. hoping for permanent peace is unrealistic and naive, instead i hope for competent invaders that bring not just armor and soldiers, but doctors, translators, humanitarian corridors ready to salvage and preserve whatever human life, property and society survives combat.
most of the drone strikes armies authorize do not have reported civilians at the time of authorization. most drone collateral is caused by bad/incomplete communication between recon teams, drone operators, ordinance operators and the people above them in rank that authorize the attack.I wrote something long without holes a couple days ago but it logged me out when I tried to post it. RQed. maybe I'll dump the sources I linked
leaders are in a unique position where they have the power to change the world but must also take responsibility for how it changes. however, presidents aren't the only people in an army with that power. even someone like putin, who most of the world hates right now, isn't directly responsible for the artillery strikes that killed civilians. the direct responsibility falls on the ground and air crews that misidentified civilians as military targets. someone like him is indirectly responsible for authorizing and publicizing the war, but war is war and once it's started it goes sideways fast. ground units get hit by accurate fire, call artillery assistance on the position they think they're taking fire from. these positions range over several km until they narrow their targets and score an accurate hit. civilians hiding in their homes, operating vehicles or carrying long items that can be misidentified as weapons tend to be killed before anyone even realizes they are civilians. these tough decisions become even tougher during asymmetrical warfare, as anyone driving a car or even walking could carry an IED or report your position to enemies.
obama authorized the use of thousands of hellfire missiles during the waning days of the war on terror. most of these quarter million dollar missiles were good hits on enemy armor and infantry. a few of them were bad hits on civilians, and at least three were friendly fire hits on US ground vehicles. he can't be directly responsible for the mistakes of ground crew with hundreds of ranks of separation between them, nor the gunner who launched the missile on bad information reported over their comms. however, these kinds of mistakes should be planned for and targets properly investigated before the strikes. leaving ground units to take fire and report incorrect coordinates under this intense fire is very irresponsible.
the only reason iban doesnt have his own kiwifarms thread is because he owns the site. he does the exact same stuff as everyone else who deserves a thread therehes had several lol the whole community knows hes a lego game loser by now