A "small scale conspiracy theory" isn't backed by the fact that practically every loving attack on a politician ever has been for political reasons.
This is just confirmation bias. Politically motivated attacks are all we ever hear about because of their historical significance. I guarantee you many politicians have thrown/received a punch between strangers or friends or family members, and we simply never hear about it because no one cares.
But yeah, you're right. I might just be unreasonably relating this to that one incident a couple months ago where a registered Democrat and Bernie supporter tried to kill several Republican politicians (INCLUDING Rand Paul) at a baseball game.
Presumably these two incidents are completely unrelated so yes, it is unreasonable to reach that conclusion lol. A gunman attacking a gathering of GOP politicians is obviously politically motivated from the get-go, while people attack their neighbors for stupid reasons more often than you think.