HIGH Severe weather risk for all of central and northern illinois

[[Maxx]]

Welp, browsing around storm prediction center today, to check the weather for my region, I stumble about this:

high weather risk for severe weather in illinois...forgetK
and ontop of that heres the tornado risk:

Black area that is outlined: significant chance, there is definitely going to be tornadoes today most likely.
well stuff.
anyway, its most of central and northern illinois, reaching out into indiana as well.

[Ad Bot]

[Menen]

Whats with all the natural disasters lately?

It seems like they are becoming more and more common.

[NalNalas]

OH forget MAXX OH forget WHENS THE STORM COMMIN

[Sentry]

ah stuff son, you gonna get forgeted.

[[Maxx]]

Tornado Watch 298 Particulary Dangerous Situation:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 298
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   150 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     NORTHEAST IOWA
     NORTHERN ILLINOIS
     EXTREME SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
     SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN

   * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM
     UNTIL 900 PM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
     SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
     SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
   MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MASON
   CITY IOWA TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ROCKFORD ILLINOIS.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

   &&

   DISCUSSION...POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS GRADUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
   TRACKS EAST ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST IOWA
   EASTWARD ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. A VOLATILE WARM
   AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD FUEL INTENSE THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS
   ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS AROUND 50KT
   SUPPORTS UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ORGANIZATION. A NUMBER OF
   SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO A CONSOLIDATION OF STORMS INTO A
   LARGE MCS TOWARD EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY NEAR THE SURFACE
   LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME TORNADOES WITH ANY
   DISCRETE CELLS. A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES SEEM POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS
   ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNDRAFT/DAMAGING WIND THREATS.

   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.

dammit mother nature
why do you have to mutilate illinois
Everything for tornados is up to Moderate.

[Dread]

it gon rain

EDIT: Also I am smack-dab in the center of that high zone.

FANTASTIC!

[Kingdaro]

Jesus christ, three inch wide hail?

Good luck with that.

[nienhaus1]

The red just misses me :D
Edit:Wait oh forget I'm getting flood warning. Great.

[Kimono]

i was gonna go swimming tomorrow >:C

[BlockoBlocko]

Thank god that New York's safe.

[[Maxx]]

i was gonna go swimming tomorrow >:C

tomorrow's fine, nothing bad going on in illinois.

Heres the outlook:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

   VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN IA...NRN
   IL...NRN IND...EXTREME SWRN MI AND EXTREME NWRN OH...

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN IA...CNTRL AND NRN
   IL...SRN WI...SWRN MI...IND...AND WRN OH...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
   THE OH VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL AND ERN MT INTO NERN
   WY...

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION...

   ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. THREAT FOR A
   SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT STILL APPEARS ON TRACK
   FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION HIGH
   AND MODERATE RISK AREAS.

   STORMS ARE IN PROCESS OF DEVELOPING FROM NERN IA INTO SRN WI WITHIN
   ZONE OF DPVA AND ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   GENERALLY NE OF SFC LOW AND NORTH OF E-W QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THE
   INITIAL SFC BASED STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF SFC LOW MAY ORGANIZE AS
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH AN INITIAL TORNADO THREAT. STORMS SHOULD
   EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND TRANSITION TO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
   WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AS IT MOVES
   ESEWD THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY DURING THE EVENING
   AND OVERNIGHT.

   ...MT AND NERN WY...

   REF SWOMCD 1042.

   ..DIAL.. 06/12/2013

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THIS
   AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN A VERY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS...COINCIDENT WITH A COMPACT AND INTENSIFYING
   SURFACE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS AS WELL
   AS SCATTERED...POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES.

   ...ERN IA/NRN IL/NRN IND/NWRN OH AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EXTREME SRN
   WI AND SWRN LOWER MI...

   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS HAVE CONGEALED AHEAD OF A
   COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-60KT MID
   LEVEL WLY FLOW CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AN
   EXPANSIVE WARM/MOIST SECTOR EXISTS AHEAD OF THE UPPER FORCING AND
   DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE WITH 2M DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
   LOWER 70S F AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE MIDWEST FROM IA EAST ACROSS IL/IND/OH. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS
   THIS SAME REGION INDICATE A PRONOUNCED EML ADVECTING EAST FROM THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9C/KM.

   DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...DEGREE OF
   HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AIDING SURFACE CYCLONE
   INTENSIFICATION ACROSS ERN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL PROVE ADEQUATE
   FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION. ADDITIONAL NEAR-SURFACE-BASED
   DEEP CONVECTION WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL MAY PRECEDE TRULY
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED FROM NERN IA ACROSS SRN WI TO LOWER
   MI. GIVEN DEGREE OF CAPPING AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...EXPECT
   POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN THE PRESENCE OF
   MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG STORM-RELATIVELY HELICITY /SRH/. ANY
   CONVECTION INITIATING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL QUICKLY
   ACQUIRE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN DEGREE OF EFFECTIVE VERTICAL
   SHEAR OF 35-55KT. POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED
   DURING THIS EARLY DEVELOPMENT PHASE /21Z-00Z/ NEAR THE LOW AND FRONT
   WHILE STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE AMIDST HIGH INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
   SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2.

   ORGANIZING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE RIPPLING EAST
   ALONG THE WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...IN CONCERT WITH 50-60KT
   MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIRECTED PREFERENTIALLY INTO/ACROSS THE
   DEVELOPING MASS OF CONVECTION SUGGESTS UPSCALE PROGRESSIVE MCS
   /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN
   ANTECEDENT AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS...STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE
   FORCING...AND DEPICTION OF CURRENT CONDITIONS...RELATIVELY HIGH
   CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A NUMBER OF STORM-SCALE MODEL SIMULATIONS
   SHOWING MCS/DERECHO EVOLUTION WITHIN THE HIGH RISK AREA THROUGH THE
   EVENING HOURS. WRF-ARW SIMULATION FROM 00Z TAKES THE APEX OF THE
   PROGRESSIVE MCS FROM CHICAGO TO DETROIT IN UNDER 6 HOURS WITH A
   FORWARD SPEED IN EXCESS OF 40KT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITHIN AND
   AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH HIGH WINDS
   POSSIBLY WELL IN EXCESS OF 60KT...AS WELL A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLY
   ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL
   LINE/QLCS.

   ...OH EAST TO EAST COAST/SOUTHEAST...
   WARM MOIST AIRMASS ALSO EXISTS WELL EAST OF THE STRONGER FORCING
   ACROSS FROM OH EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO EAST COAST. SOME
   MODEL SIMULATIONS DEPICT THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE
   COMPLEXES DEVELOPING FROM INITIALLY MULTICELLULAR STORMS ACROSS THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR REMAIN
   SUBTLE/WEAK ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   HOWEVER...DEGREE OF ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN A FEW
   HAIL/WIND EVENTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO LATE
   TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THESE PARTS OF THE SLGT RISK AREA.

   ...MT/NERN WY...
   STRONG IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF LARGER TROUGH ACROSS
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL AID ASCENT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON. STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   STRENGTHENING SHEAR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A NUMBER OF SUPERCELL
   STORMS POSING BOTH HAIL AND WIND THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
   ALSO EVOLVE FROM INITIAL DISCRETE CELLS GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
   STORM UPDRAFT LAYER.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 2029Z (3:29PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[nienhaus1]

tomorrow's fine, nothing bad going on in illinois.

Heres the outlook:

Maybe for you but I have flood warnings as I live right by the loving river.

[Slammer1337]

im in the mild area

but i hate rain ;.;

[NalNalas]

yay

[Slammer1337]

yay

>area i live in is severe

fuk da weatha sistim