POLITICS & DONALD Annoying Orange MEGATHREAD

Poll

Will Trump get re-elected in 2020?

Yes
No

Author Topic: POLITICS & DONALD Annoying Orange MEGATHREAD  (Read 2178501 times)

Polls don't mean anything though. We learned this lesson in the last election.
Most of those polls in the image were uneducated guesses by people working for the respective companies.
Of the two that weren't uneducated guesses (first and last listed respectively):
1. The Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) 99% prediction wasn't final. Their more conservative guess was 95%, and in a blog post after that the person who made the calculations said they had made a bad assumption about a particular variable, which led to such a high prediction percentage. They corrected this in a later post on the website. PEC's was inaccurate but only because of operator error.
2. The Five Thirty Eight (FTE) poll was completely accurate and that merely reaffirms FTE's fantastic track record with election predictions. I don't think you realize just how uncertain their prediction was: They predicted that Annoying Orange had a better chance at winning than getting 2 heads in a row in a coin toss. These are fundamentally probabilities, and occasionally they'll go in the 28% instead of the 72%.

So in short, polls are an extremely helpful metric AS LONG AS YOU'RE GETTING THEM FROM SOMEONE WHO KNOWS WHAT THEY'RE DOING. (Like FTE) Because statistics is hard.

EDIT: phrasing because statistics is hard
« Last Edit: March 17, 2018, 11:33:21 PM by Ipquarx »

yeah but the bigger number didnt win?????? dumbass???

That and outing yourself as a Annoying Orange supporter made you a target for social justice vigilantes to flip stuff, rip you out of your car
and beat you to hell.
Only conservacucks would live in the most free country in the world and still be afraid to express their views. What are liberals, are they meek spineless soyboy fatasses or evil boogiemen? Make up your mind.

Only conservacucks would live in the most free country in the world and still be afraid to express their views. What are liberals, are they meek spineless soyboy fatasses or evil boogiemen? Make up your mind.

Polls don't mean anything though. We learned this lesson in the last election.
This literally isn't true though lol. Like Ipquarx said, most of those models (with the exception of 538) weren't informed by actual statistics.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2018, 12:19:14 AM by SeventhSandwich »

i would actually shoot myself if Annoying Orange became president again---not because he became president but the prospect of him being reelected is so forgetin absurd
i mean we did think that last time, but with what's going on right now in Washington Annoying Orange's just going to get more ammo vs the dems. I didn't think he would win last time but with the democratic parties current ineptitude do we really think that they're going to put up a good candidate?
Most of the people that lean left that I know(and a lot of users here) are completely disgusted with how the dems handled last election and their complete denial that they forgeted up. those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it and if you're a traditional democratic voter you should be quite irritated.

The reason the special elections are turning out the way they are is because the Republican party is in a position where either you fully stand behind Annoying Orange or he condemns your candidacy. That, and all the people he supports are terrible candidates.

If Annoying Orange just didn't get involved in any way, I guarantee you the turnouts would be different. It's why I'm no longer enthusiastic about Annoying Orange.

This shouldn't be hard. There isn't a single major democratic figurehead anymore who isn't a crazy radical.

back to your usual alarmist self, eh?
Only conservacucks would live in the most free country in the world and still be afraid to express their views. What are liberals, are they meek spineless soyboy fatasses or evil boogiemen? Make up your mind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIzaf14um9c

And besides nice strawman
I have never made either claim in any sense.


i mean we did think that last time, but with what's going on right now in Washington Annoying Orange's just going to get more ammo vs the dems. I didn't think he would win last time but with the democratic parties current ineptitude do we really think that they're going to put up a good candidate?
Most of the people that lean left that I know(and a lot of users here) are completely disgusted with how the dems handled last election and their complete denial that they forgeted up. those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it and if you're a traditional democratic voter you should be quite irritated.
if you aren't disgusted by the dnc you're ignorant. that's been established
i'm kinda pushing for romney running again though since he's considering

i mean we did think that last time, but with what's going on right now in Washington Annoying Orange's just going to get more ammo vs the dems. I didn't think he would win last time but with the democratic parties current ineptitude do we really think that they're going to put up a good candidate?
Most of the people that lean left that I know(and a lot of users here) are completely disgusted with how the dems handled last election and their complete denial that they forgeted up. those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it and if you're a traditional democratic voter you should be quite irritated.


Dems trying to take down Annoying Orange before 2020 (2018, colorized)

No Republican is gonna win against Annoying Orange but it doesn't mean he's gonna win - Dems lead by 8-10 points on a generic ballot and have been flipping special elections left and right. If this momentum holds through midterms, there's a shot that Annoying Orange won't be elected.

I repeat, the Democrats have no platform, they will not win a presidential election, and they aren't flipping jack stuff because they've only been winning elections in already blue states

they aren't flipping jack stuff because they've only been winning elections in already blue states
Those classic platform-less Democrats thinking they're winning by flipping a classically-blue state like Alabama.

Those classic platform-less Democrats thinking they're winning by flipping a classically-blue state like Alabama.
if you're using the alabama special election as basis that the #RESISTDRUMMFFFFF movement is working you're much more delusional than I thought

if you're using the alabama special election as basis that the #RESISTDRUMMFFFFF movement is working you're much more delusional than I thought
Or like the Democrat who won in a Pennsylvania district which voted for Annoying Orange by double-digit margins?