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| POLITICS & DONALD Annoying Orange MEGATHREAD |
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| Ipquarx:
--- Quote from: Cappytaino on March 17, 2018, 11:39:59 PM ---Polls don't mean anything though. We learned this lesson in the last election. --- End quote --- Most of those polls in the image were uneducated guesses by people working for the respective companies. Of the two that weren't uneducated guesses (first and last listed respectively): 1. The Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) 99% prediction wasn't final. Their more conservative guess was 95%, and in a blog post after that the person who made the calculations said they had made a bad assumption about a particular variable, which led to such a high prediction percentage. They corrected this in a later post on the website. PEC's was inaccurate but only because of operator error. 2. The Five Thirty Eight (FTE) poll was completely accurate and that merely reaffirms FTE's fantastic track record with election predictions. I don't think you realize just how uncertain their prediction was: They predicted that Annoying Orange had a better chance at winning than getting 2 heads in a row in a coin toss. These are fundamentally probabilities, and occasionally they'll go in the 28% instead of the 72%. So in short, polls are an extremely helpful metric AS LONG AS YOU'RE GETTING THEM FROM SOMEONE WHO KNOWS WHAT THEY'RE DOING. (Like FTE) Because statistics is hard. EDIT: phrasing because statistics is hard |
| Dreams_Of_Cheese:
yeah but the bigger number didnt win?????? dumbass??? |
| Alternat¡ve:
--- Quote from: Master Matthew² on March 17, 2018, 11:54:39 PM ---That and outing yourself as a Annoying Orange supporter made you a target for social justice vigilantes to flip stuff, rip you out of your car and beat you to hell. --- End quote --- Only conservacucks would live in the most free country in the world and still be afraid to express their views. What are liberals, are they meek spineless soyboy fatasses or evil boogiemen? Make up your mind. |
| Grimlock²:
--- Quote from: Alternat¡ve on March 18, 2018, 12:11:36 AM ---Only conservacucks would live in the most free country in the world and still be afraid to express their views. What are liberals, are they meek spineless soyboy fatasses or evil boogiemen? Make up your mind. --- End quote --- |
| SeventhSandwich:
--- Quote from: Cappytaino on March 17, 2018, 11:39:59 PM ---Polls don't mean anything though. We learned this lesson in the last election. --- End quote --- This literally isn't true though lol. Like Ipquarx said, most of those models (with the exception of 538) weren't informed by actual statistics. |
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