POLITICS & DONALD Annoying Orange MEGATHREAD

[SeventhSandwich]

The european union still has control over france, so their influence is far stronger, and I think we are going to see very similar results to the Annoying Orange and brexit election, but multiplied by 10 considering how the Antifa/AnarchoCommunists/GeneralRioters have been acting in France and the rest of europe

Consider the fact that most polls for Brexit and the election had Stay/Hillary within 3-5 points. That's a statistically significant lead but it's also within the margins of error. 24 points is a ridiculously large lead. Unless they are blatantly fabricating data - there is no reality where LePen would come out on top. She's doing about as well as McMullin was doing in Utah.

I guess it's possible that if there was some sort of massive terrorist attack, it might shift sympathies, but at this rate she isn't gaining fast enough to have any chance.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/le-pen-is-just-a-gargantuan-polling-error-behind-macron/

Keep in mind that the polls predicted the popular vote very well in the last US election. The reason Annoying Orange won was because of a sudden surge in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. France does not use an electoral college.

Remaining weeks? The vote is tomorrow!

Oh stuff you're right lol. My sense of time has been screwed over immensely by finals.

[Ad Bot]

[Rooged]

I guess it's possible that if there was some sort of massive terrorist attack, it might shift sympathies, but at this rate she isn't gaining fast enough to have any chance.

you mean something like this?

[beachbum111111]

I want La Pen to win just because McZealot said he would kill himself

[Foxscotch]

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/raul-labrador-town-hall-nobody-dies-access-to-healthcare-obamacare
imagine being this rich and disconnected from the lives of people you represent in congress

this stuff has got me forgeted up

[Cappytaino]

I guess it's possible that if there was some sort of massive terrorist attack, it might shift sympathies, but at this rate she isn't gaining fast enough to have any chance.

is this not exactly what you said about the US Election tho

I'm pretty sure if we've learned anything from the last election, it's that polls are a piss-poor indicator of future results.

[SeventhSandwich]

is this not exactly what you said about the US Election tho

Sort of. It was a very harsh lesson in not conflating likelihood with certainty. So I won't say that LePen has a zero percent chance - but I will say that it is extremely, extremely unlikely she will win, and that her poll results aren't even close to the numbers Annoying Orange or Brexit was getting. Saying she'll win because Annoying Orange won is like saying you'll win the lottery because you won a close hand in blackjack. The probabilities here are most likely an order of magnitude off.

I'm pretty sure if we've learned anything from the last election, it's that polls are a piss-poor indicator of future results.

They aren't piss-poor. They generally give consistent results, and they are completely transparent about their uncertainties. Nate Silver's final prediction for the election was that Annoying Orange had a 35% chance of winning. His model was based on polls and gave Annoying Orange a higher chance than virtually every other person's model. It wasn't wrong just because the less-likely option happened.

Think of it this way: even if you have a perfectly accurate poll that accounts for every known variable, the 'output' you get from your data is a set of probabilities. If a model gives a candidate a 5% chance of winning, and that candidate later goes on to win, does that mean that your data was useless?

[IkeTheGeneric]

I'm pretty sure if we've learned anything from the last election, it's that polls are a piss-poor indicator of future results.

Contrary to that, the only thing to take away from this election is that people don't understand how statistics and forecasting works

[Red Spy]

I want La Pen to win just because McZealot said he would kill himself

This tbh

[e-maxx]

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/raul-labrador-town-hall-nobody-dies-access-to-healthcare-obamacare

imagine being this rich and disconnected from the lives of people you represent in congress

the forget does he think healthcare is for

[Ipquarx]

Contrary to that, the only thing to take away from this election is that people don't understand how statistics and forecasting works

Pretty much, the pollsters gave him a solid 30% chance of victory before numbers started rolling in. That's a one in three chance. That's not some out-of-this-world unlikely event, it's more likely than getting two heads in a row. If his chances were predicted to be on the order of 5% or less, I could understand being "relatively certain" (and I say that lightly) about him loosing.

[Tactical Nuke]

Pretty much, the pollsters gave him a solid 30% chance of victory before numbers started rolling in. That's a one in three chance. That's not some out-of-this-world unlikely event, it's more likely than getting two heads in a row. If his chances were predicted to be on the order of 5% or less, I could understand being "relatively certain" (and I say that lightly) about him loosing.

you're still talking about Le Pen being 24 or so points behind Macron

unless I have no idea what I'm talking about that gives her about the same chance as Annoying Orange

[SeventhSandwich]

you're still talking about Le Pen being 24 or so points behind Macron

percentage points, not probability-points. If you go off 538's weighted average, Hillary was 3.8 points ahead of Annoying Orange. Macron is 20-24 points ahead of LePen.

[Aide33]

>americans thinking they know anything that know anything about the french election
>americans that support le pen

C'est vraiment triste.

[Blockomaniac]

viva la

[Red Spy]

C'est vraiment triste.

They said that in 1940 too