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SPC AC 171715forget.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SWRN LOWER MI...ERN/SRN
IL...WRN/NRN IND...SERN MO...FAR WRN KY/TN...ERN AR...NWRN MS...FAR
NERN LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE CONSISTING OF POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ON THU...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT 12Z/THU WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY FRI. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL
EJECT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO WI/IL WITH AN INTENSE AND
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /AOA 100 KT/ OVERSPREADING THE
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE IA/IL
BORDER NEWD TOWARDS NRN LK MI. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
EWD LIKELY REACHING LK MI TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THU EVENING. A
WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVANCE NWD IN LOWER MI...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR N IT WILL EXTEND WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION
EXPECTED N OF THE BOUNDARY.
...GREAT LAKES TO THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU
ALONG BOTH FRONTAL ZONES. DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN A RICHLY MOIST AIR
MASS FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE MIDWEST CHARACTERIZED BY 60S TO
LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS AMIDST A REMNANT EML PLUME EMANATING
N/NEWD ACROSS THE S-CNTRL CONUS...SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1000-2000 J/KG.
LOWER-LEVEL SHEAR/HODOGRAPHS WILL BE IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WITH NRN
EXTENT ACROSS THE BULK OF THE WARM SECTOR. THESE FACTORS COMBINED
WITH STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT WILL LIKELY YIELD AN EXTENSIVE QLCS THAT
WILL INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL
BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF SHEAR.
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE QLCS AS MLCIN BECOMES MINIMAL. THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE MORE
PREVALENT WITH SRN EXTENT WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. SWATHS OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
PROBABLE ALONG WITH A ROBUST TORNADO RISK /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT/. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE MOISTURE PLUME IS PINCHED OFF WITH
NRN EXTENT GIVEN DOWNSLOPE DRYING OFF THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE
CNTRL/UPPER OH VALLEY.
..GRAMS.. 04/17/2013
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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