does it generate a launcher.log?
if it does, post that it might help.
It creates a file called "msvcr71.dll" that appears only when the launcher is up. I don't know what it says, but it just has a bunch of jumbled characters and such, but in it, I see "This program cannot be run in DOS mode"
I have no idea what that means, but if anyone does, please tell me. I'll copy the whole file here (WARNING, SPAM!):
MZ ÿÿ ¸ @ ð º ´ Í!¸LÍ!This program cannot be run in DOS mode.
$ ŒœvÈýÃÈýÃÈýÃKõEÃËýÃÈýÃSýÃFêxÃßýÃFêÃ…ýÃFêGÃÇÿÃFêDÃÉýÃFêFÃÉýÃFêBÃÉýÃRichÈýà PE L èQ´D !
À 6| ` V¿ L C ¸’ ( ¸ 0 h+ ˜Ÿ 8 ˜ H l .text ø `.rdata ` @ @.data h ° ` ° @ À.rsrc ¸ @ @.reloc h+ 0 0 @ B