Author Topic: Weather Forecast 10/13/14  (Read 835 times)

I'm bored and I want to get doing to these so welcome.
Currently at the time of 5PM CDT 6PM EDT There is a line of tornado watches in effect due to a line of storms from Wisconsin to Louisiana, currently there have been 6 tornado reports, here is the Convective Outlook that was assigned for today updated at 2:45 PM.
Quote
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN
   ALABAMA...WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA...FROM CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
   ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
   ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
   TENNESSEE VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. WIDESPREAD
   DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.

   ...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
   CATEGORICAL AND SEVERE PROBABILISTIC LINES HAVE BEEN
   ADJUSTED...MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUING EASTWARD PROGRESSION
   OF THE SQUALL LINE /NOW GENERALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
   RIVER/...AND RESULTANT DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN ITS WAKE.
    AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEVERE WIND/TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE
   BEEN INCREASED NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN ILLINOIS AND
   WESTERN/CENTRAL INDIANA...AS FAR NORTH AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL
   ZONE.  AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING ALONG
   THIS CORRIDOR...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR LIKELY TO
   BECOME STRONG TO EXTREME BY THIS EVENING...BENEATH SOUTHERLY 850 MB
   FLOW STRENGTHENING FROM 50 TO 70 KT.  OTHERWISE...AIDED BY INFLOW OF
   WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IN THE PEAK AFTERNOON
   HEATING....SQUALL LINE INTENSIFICATION WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS
   NORTHERN/EASTERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
   KENTUCKY IS STILL EXPECTED...LEADING TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

   FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING THE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND
   SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES.

   ..KERR.. 10/13/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/

   ...LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS AND GULF COAST...
   A COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MAKE A SLOW/STEADY EASTWARD
   PROGRESSION TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT MIDDAY...EXTENDING FROM
   NEAR THE ST LOUIS AREA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO FAR EASTERN AR AND
   WESTERN/NORTHERN LA AS OF 16Z. WHILE CLOUD COVER REMAINS FAIRLY
   EXTENSIVE AT MIDDAY WITHIN THE COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE-PRECEDING WARM
   SECTOR...AT LEAST SOME THINNING IS NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
   PARTICULARLY ACROSS MS/WESTERN AL AND TN...COINCIDENT WITH
   INCREASINGLY PREVALENT UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITHIN
   THIS CORRIDOR.

   A DOMINANT QUASI-LINEAR/SQUALL LINE MODE IS LIKELY TO
   PERSIST...PARTICULARLY GIVEN A TENDENCY FOR BACKING MID-LEVEL WINDS
   /TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY/ THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THAT SAID...AT
   LEAST SOME INCREASE IN LINE-PRECEDING STORMS IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE
   WARM SECTOR GIVEN INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/REDUCED
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. EVEN WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERY STRONG
   SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 3KM...ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES/LOW-LEVEL
   CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
   TORNADOES. THIS INCLUDES A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT
   EVENTS GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS/SRH.

   REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK INTO THE
   MIDWEST...ONGOING STRATIFORM-LEADING CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE
   MID-SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NNEWD WHILE THE LARGER-SCALE
   COLLECTION OF BANDS TRANSLATES EWD THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR
   AS A STRONG LLJ PRECEDING THE STRENGTHENING DEEP CYCLONE ENCOURAGES
   AN INFLUX OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE TO THE SE OF A
   FRONTOGENETIC BOUNDARY BRANCHING NEWD FROM THE SFC LOW. AS A
   RESULT...MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO
   EXTEND NWD TO NEAR/JUST N OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR BENEATH 50-60-KT H85 SLYS WILL BOLSTER UPDRAFTS VIA
   STORM-SCALE DYNAMIC PERTURBATIONS...DESPITE LIMITED BUOYANCY...TO
   THE NRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA. CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM
   TRANSPORT WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS IN
   BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH 30-35 KT OF 0-1-KM SHEAR YIELDING SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THE SVR RISK WILL PRECIPITOUSLY
   DECREASE WITH NWD DISPLACEMENT FROM I-70.

   REGARDING LATE TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY...THE
   LARGE-SCALE DEEPENING OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE RELATED TO A
   MODEST SPATIAL EXPANSION OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL MASS FLUXES
   PERIPHERAL TO THE DEEPER SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...A STRONG
   FRONT/SQUALL-LINE-LEADING LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AMPLE
   GULF-MOISTURE TRANSPORT /UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS/ THROUGH
   TONIGHT. DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
   NWD/NEWD ALONG CONFLUENT BANDS PRECEDING THE FRONT. THE LOW-LEVEL
   BUOYANCY/SHEAR COMBINATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR AT
   LEAST ISOLATED SVR STORMS...WITH DMGG WINDS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE
   FROM MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES INCLUDING DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS.
There has also been a Public Severe Weather Outlook issued at this time.

Quote
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
   WOUS40 KWNS 131952
   ALZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-140200-

   PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

   ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the mid-south and
   lower and middle Mississippi River valley this afternoon and
   tonight...

   * LOCATIONS...
     Mississippi
     Western Tennessee
     Western Kentucky
     Western Alabama
     Southern Illinois

   * HAZARDS...
     Several tornadoes
     Widespread damaging winds

   * SUMMARY...
     Severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into
     tonight across the lower and middle Mississippi Valley and parts
     of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Gulf Coast states.
     Widespread damaging winds and some tornadoes are expected.

   Preparedness actions...

   Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
   of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
   weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
   watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
   during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
   your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
   interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html
Currently on the Radar:

This looks like a line of storms spreaded out due to a hurricane, I am unsure at this time.
(Meant to put NE, not NEb.)
AT 5PM, IF LATER THAN 5PM CLICK HERE:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

I was out driving in a severe thunderstorm today. There was a hail signature near my location but I stayed out of it, but I still got waterlogged. That same storm dropped a tornado about 40 miles later.

a tornado touched down a few hours ago while i was in school. they called a code red and the power went out. it totally collapsed a local store with someone still inside and another place lost its roof.

it's the end of the world let's lynch our local politicians

I'd wondered why it was raining today.

EDIT:

Jesus christ.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2014, 06:21:01 PM by WaterOre »

good thing i live in middle tennessee c:

good thing i live in middle tennessee c:

I'm assuming you like storms too?

Atlanta here.

100% chance of rain at midnight. Whoo.


I'm assuming you like storms too?
its been only wind so far

I'd wondered why it was raining today.

EDIT:

Jesus christ.
Hopefully that doesn't come any lower.

its been only wind so far

I had some gusts of wind and downpours when I was leaving school. It eventually picked up and rained so hard for ~20 minutes that I couldn't see very far, and then gradually died out.

Hopefully that doesn't come any lower.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ohx
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mob&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

I want severe thunderstorms but not severe enough to knock out the power or internet
just lots of rain and thunder and lightning

Oh good, I'm not the only one who uses the NWS.
Quote
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
318 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-142030-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
318 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND SQUALL LINE
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ON TUESDAY...ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY...
AND OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

I want severe thunderstorms but not severe enough to knock out the power or internet
just lots of rain and thunder and lightning
yea this