it's just going to be dooble isn't it.
I wouldn't count on it. i didn't make it past semi-finals last year, and this year I've been much less present in the community (took all summer off, hosted a fraction of what I did last year, not involved in things like brockrand, etc..).
I was in the final of jairos poll, but there was a lot of vote rigging, so I don't think that was too representative.
It will definitely be someone who is more active, or contributing to the game/community that wins this year, which is great!
Poll