The statements issued by Derek Savage and James Elmer Ider have effected the polls recently. Since voting and such isn't complete yet, these are not exact results.
The People's Front
Nationwide Support Map

White and Grey = Undecided, no lean
White and Blue = Undecided, leaning James Elmer Ider
White and Dark Blue = Undecided, leaning Piko Taro
Blue = James Elmer Ider lead
Piko has a lead in Niels, Remington, and Mychala who disapprove of the Racial Discrimination Act, thinking it makes politicians corrupt and worry for their privacy due to their disapproval of the act, and how the government can spy on anyone. Meanwhile, James had a lead in Helena, Clercben, and Saxon who support having the bill to protect the citizen rights. If Piko supports the RDA, he could easily lose his support, and if James denounces the RDA, he could lose his support too. Abner is completely neutral.
Niels
One of the provinces against the RDA, Piko not commenting on it and James supporting it has lead to a sure victory for Piko in Niels. While not set in stone, it's clear that without James excessively campaigning in Niels, he will lose in this province.
Independence Party
White and Grey = Undecided, no lean
White and Red = Undecided, leaning Derek Savage
White and Dark Red = Undecided, leaning Erick Finnian Lindon
Red = Derek Savage lead
Dark Red = Erick Finnian Lindon lead
Abner, Mychala, and Remington do not like the RDA, and approve of the governor for letting companies not have to abide by it, giving Derek a landslide victory in these states. Helena and Niels Independence Party voters also don't like it, but since Derek backed the corrupt governor, they sided with Erick. Clercben and Saxon are divided between no lean and lean towards Erick.
Erick has a landslide victory in Niels due to Derek supporting the corrupt governor.
Since many (obviously) agree the Earthquake is tragic and no one has responded on how to deal with it, it has not influenced much in the first day.
Data
The People's Front
Nationwide
Nationwide, support is neck and neck between James and Piko, Abner could possibly break this if swayed.
Niels
While James is losing in Niels, he has a chance to make up.
Independence Party
Nationwide
Straight out the gate, Derek suffers heavy losses, esp. due to Erick's heavy hold in Helena, and a lead in 4/7 of the provinces.