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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF IA...ERN
NEB...NW MO AND KS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS....MID-MO VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
CORRECTED TO REMOVE SECOND HEADLINE
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH MANY TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...MID-MO VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUNDAY AS DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CNTRL STATES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY.
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN THE MID MO VALLEY
SUNDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN UNDISTURBED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT FROM IA EXTENDING SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO SE NEB AND
CNTRL KS. DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH
MANY TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z/MON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM
DES MOINES IA SWWD TO TOPEKA KS SHOW IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES
COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM IS FORECASTING MLCAPE IN
THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT. IN
ADDITION...LONG LOOPED HODOGRAPHS RESULT IN 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES OF 350 TO 500 M2/S2 SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. SEVERAL STRONG OR LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
RAPIDLY BECOMES FOCUSED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS.
UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST CONCERNING HOW THE EVENT WILL UNFOLD
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING STORM MODE. THE
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG ROTATION WITH
SUPERCELLS BUT THE STORMS IN THE CNTRL PLAINS MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE
INTO LINES ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL LINEAR FORCING WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN
IA...SUPERCELLS SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME REMAINING DISCRETE. THE
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOST FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH FOR STRONG
TORNADOES AT DES MOINES IA AT 00Z/MON SUGGESTING THE WARM FRONT MAY
HAVE THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
CONSOLIDATES DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT MAY DEVELOP SWWD AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONSOLIDATES.
...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A VERY MOIST WARM
SECTOR EXTENDING EWD FROM A DRYLINE IN FAR WRN OK AND NW TX. AS
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM CLINTON OK SWWD TO WICHITA FALLS TX SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE IN THE 3000 TO 3500
J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE AROUND 35 KT WITH
850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM. THIS SHOULD BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREAT THAN 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CELLS THAT CAN BECOME DOMINANT IN SPITE
OF THE WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING. A FEW TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...BACKED SELY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A BROAD MOIST SECTOR FROM SRN MN SEWD INTO IL AND WRN IND
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
AS THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ELEVATED...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS BUT ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR.
..BROYLES.. 05/10/2014
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