A large meteor the size of the trading port in the central islands slams into the port and destroys everything
Not sure if Swat's right and that's just been voided, but if literal...
Avalonians take this as a punishment from the Gods for continuing to deal with this less honorable people and cultural exchanges with Atensia drop once again after the brief thaw. Normal trade continues, however.
Avalonia sends a force of 2,500 men and over 7,000 horses into the lands to the North to open up trade once again after a local leader united several fiefdoms and interrupted Avalonian shipping and stuff with Espul and the East and failed to respond favorably to the Avalonian non-military response. The force is also supplied with wagons, some filled with arrows, others with tents and food, and still others with nothing in the expectation of bringing back some loot. Unless there are major hiccups in the campaign, Avalonia intends to go all the way to the coast. Scouts have indicated that the area has beaten paths throughout, but no real roads, and that the enemy's force consists mainly of the sort of stuff Ormica has.