Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 221638 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SMALL PARTS OF IA/WI TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA AND OH... ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE APPALACHIANS AND VA/CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SOME GREATER THAN 70 MILES PER HOUR ALONG WITH TORNADOES AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL INDIANA AND PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO AFFECT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/MIDWEST/OH VALLEY TO APPALACHIANS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES AN EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/RELATED SPEED MAX OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHERN ND AT LATE MORNING...WITH THIS IMPULSE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...12Z UPPER-AIR brown townYSIS FEATURES A SEASONALLY VERY STRONG BELT OF 50+ KT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CONUS...AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND OH RIVER/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL IL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. WHILE THE CONTINUED PERSISTENCE OF THIS CONVECTION/RELATED CLOUD CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EFFECTIVE SPATIAL LOCATION/TIMING...THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEB DEVELOPS EASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN IA BY EARLY EVENING. MORNING UPPER-AIR DATA AND RECENT SURFACE brown townYSIS/TRENDS SUGGEST THAT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND 1.7+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES/ WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN TANDEM WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP IN MOST 12Z REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS...AN EASTWARD-EXPANDING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /OMAHA 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG BUOYANCY /3000+ J PER KG MLCAPE/ BY LATE AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY FROM EASTERN IA INTO IL AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /50-70 KT EFFECTIVE/ NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING-INFLUENCED WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT /EF2+/. THIS INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN IA AND POSSIBLY ADJACENT EXTREME SOUTHERN WI BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND NEARBY WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A FAST-MOVING QUASI-LINEAR MCS...POTENTIALLY WITH A DERECHO-RELATED SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF WIND DAMAGE EVOLVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING /AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT/. THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY REACH THE OH RIVER/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. ...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO VA/CAROLINAS... A LINGERING OVERNIGHT RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KY/FAR WESTERN WV AT MIDDAY. A CONVECTION-TRAILING MCV APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCING THIS ACTIVITY /50+ KT MID-LEVEL WINDS NOTED ALONG THE OH RIVER AT MIDDAY IN REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA/. PARTICULARLY GIVEN THIS MCV...AS THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...AT LEAST LIKELY ADDITIONAL MCS/MCV-PRECEDING DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ASIDE FROM A GENERAL INTENSIFICATION...WITH BOUTS OF SEVERE WIND/POSSIBLY SOME HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ...FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN MN... IN RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX...ISOLATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST /60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH. WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /50 KT/ COULD SUPPORT A FEW SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.
no-one cares about that stuffty state
oh tornado warning here rop.if I don't post here in like 30 minutes I'm dead
