Author Topic: [UK EU Referendum] - UK VOTES LEAVE | 51.89% // 48.11%  (Read 48491 times)

I understand the free trade zone is probably the biggest benefit, however I don't think likes of Germany will suddenly "cut trading with the UK's high economy" because it would be pointless and they'd just be losing out on making money by selling their goods. Heck we would still be trading with America which has a big economy too.
maybe, but it's still not quite as good as having the guarantee of trade free of barriers across all member states

I understand the free trade zone is probably the biggest benefit, however I don't think likes of Germany will suddenly "cut trading with the UK's high economy" because it would be pointless and they'd just be losing out on making money by selling their goods. Heck we would still be trading with America which has a big economy too.
Are you that confirmation biased that you completely disregard the official report I linked?

In this world no one is going to stop trading with anybody, it will simply take place regulated by a different system, a trading model if you will. The real options are (in worsening lineup) EEA (Norway) (unlikely because the EU doesnt want to set a prededent), negotiated bilateral agreement (Switzerland, Turkey, Canada) or WTO (World Trade Organization) which is the standard trading model. Most likely is the second variant, but worst case scenario is that the UK triggers article 50 and Theresa May can't unite the government, leading to a political deadlock. Should that happen, then they either have no other option than take a real stuffty deal or default to WTO rules at the end of the two years. Which would mean -£3700 to -£6800 GDP per household.

It is unfathomable how important it is for the United Kingdom to remain in the single market, and it is because of this that I feel the UK will not fully leave the EU once negotiations are made.

It is because of the importance of the single market on the economy of the UK that I feel that the UK should back out of leaving the European Union all together. If the UK manages to leave the EU and makes deals to continue being a member of the market which is important for maintaining a healthy economy, it would mean that the UK would still need to follow EU regulations for import/export, and it would also mean that the UK needs to maintain free movement of EU workers through its borders. The UK would not be able to get back the "control" that Brexiteers have been campaigning for this whole time, and it would also mean that the UK will no longer have input in the regulations and laws the EU will pass in future which could affect the UK.

I think the UK should keep waiting rather than leaving for the time being, and see how the now rattled EU reacts to this situation. It is very possible that changes are now made to the EU which will give more reason for the UK to back out of leaving.


On another note: The UK's current membership with the EU has many perks. For one the UK was able to keep its own currency which has lead to a stronger economy, and it is also not part of the European Schengen Agreement, meaning it still has a lot of control over its own borders. If the UK leaves the EU and realises it was a bad idea, or if they want to join the EU again in future, it is likely their new membership will not have any of the perks that they have now.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2016, 07:46:32 AM by General »

-snip-

Who says there has to be a system at all?
Why not just trade like the U.K used to.

It's not like we managed to do that for hundreds of years before...

Who says there has to be a system at all?
Why not just trade like the U.K used to.

It's not like we managed to do that for hundreds of years before...
The problem is that now you have the existence of the single market, and goods sold within that market need to follow EU regulation. It is impossible for the UK to completely sever any trade they have with the EU as it accounts for over 40% of all goods the UK trades.

Who says there has to be a system at all?
Why not just trade like the U.K used to.

It's not like we managed to do that for hundreds of years before...
You didnt read past 3 lines, did you. The WTO system IS the default system. Not having a specific model is a model as well. Also, like I said, that would mean -£3700 to -£6800 GDP per household.

that would mean -£3700 to -£6800 GDP per household.

Can you explain why the GDP would suddenly go into really low negative figures?

The pound looks like it's going back up to me.

Can you explain why the GDP would suddenly go into really low negative figures?

The pound looks like it's going back up to me.

Why are you so hell-bent on currency? There are way more way more significant consequences. I'd suggest you read up on GDP.

Why are you so hell-bent on currency? There are way more way more significant consequences. I'd suggest you read up on GDP.

1. If the currency is strong, then it helps the economy stay strong.
2. Why would the GDP drop so low, then?

1. If the currency is strong, then it helps the economy stay strong.
2. Why would the GDP drop so low, then?
How about reading the links I post for this express purpose, to explain. Stop looking for a straight line in such a complex subject. If you can't bother to put in the work and read to understand the full picture, you shouldn't be so vocal about your opinions.

On another note: The UK's current membership with the EU has many perks. For one the UK was able to keep its own currency which has lead to a stronger economy, and it is also not part of the European Schengen Agreement, meaning it still has a lot of control over its own borders. If the UK leaves the EU and realises it was a bad idea, or if they want to join the EU again in future, it is likely their new membership will not have any of the perks that they have now.
I personally doubt that the UK will ever officially try to rejoin the EU after we're out, but if we ever should, I can guarantee we won't agree to join without those same terms.

Even if being out is horrendous it can't possibly be so bad that we'd join a crumbling currency.
We would get a tough deal if we tried to rejoin, but remember we're still strong enough economically and industrially to have the power to negotiate those terms.
We're not some weedy leechy country, like Greece, who fully depend on the EU and put nothing back into it.

How about reading the links I post for this express purpose, to explain. Stop looking for a straight line in such a complex subject. If you can't bother to put in the work and read to understand the full picture, you shouldn't be so vocal about your opinions.
As far as I can tell you're just saying "GDP will drop".

Why? Give me some facts and statistics that show this prediction.


As far as I can tell you're just saying "GDP will drop".

Why? Give me some facts and statistics that show this prediction.
he's been pointing you to a post he made on the last page with all of the information he's talking about
HM Treasury brown townysis: the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives

If I could point you towards the summarizing table on page 8, you can see all the alternative models to EU membership are stuff.

also currency is a lot more complicated than "higher is better" a high-value currency means you can buy more foreign goods, but a low-value currency means that other people can buy more of your goods. iirc some countries like china(?) deliberately value their currency lower relative to the dollar to keep their exports strong; it's not so simple. of course higher-value currency is typically better for consumers, it's not always better for the economy. in fact, the last major deflation event happens to also be called "the great depression," but that's also quite an extreme scenario
« Last Edit: July 15, 2016, 12:53:35 PM by otto-san »