I have an xbox, and I love it, but PS3 has some good stuff too.
But first, Xbox live is only $35 if you buy the card from Amazon, so its not that expensive at all.
The xbox exclusives for 2009 were pretty bad. (ODST meh, L4D2 meh, Forza? good)
PS3 had Uncharted, Deamon Souls, and Ratchet and Clank, all amazing games.
Its pretty close, I would buy whatever console most of your friends have.