NASA: 2012 myth debunked

[Otis Da HousKat]

Some vague injury will befall a vague famous person at some vague point in time.

I have predicted it!

[Ad Bot]

[Tom Gunn]

Its not the Mayans I fear, its Nastradamuses prediction of the end of the world I fear. 2012 is a hoax but this guy was real and his predictions in his passed life were accurate.

 I watched a TV show about him a while ago, he predicted the life of 7 sons and daughters of a queen, an injury of a king durring a joust and his death, and much more. He has a whole book dedicated to him with all of his predictions written down. One of his last predictions was the year of the end of the world, it was said to come around the year of the 31st century, 3200 something last time I've seen the date.

good ill be dead by then.

[Otis Da HousKat]

Also, believe everything you see on TV.

[Riot]

Also, believe everything you see on TV.

 They were just talking about him on TV, he is in a history book if your interested. Spanish I think.

[Shinji]

Nostradamus predicted that the three anti-christs would spur the end of the world or something like that.

[Inv3rted]

Its not the Mayans I fear, its Nastradamuses prediction of the end of the world I fear. 2012 is a hoax but this guy was real and his predictions in his passed life were accurate.

 I watched a TV show about him a while ago, he predicted the life of 7 sons and daughters of a queen, an injury of a king durring a joust and his death, and much more. He has a whole book dedicated to him with all of his predictions written down. One of his last predictions was the year of the end of the world, it was said to come around the year of the 31st century, 3200 something last time I've seen the date.

You're an idiot.

[Riot]

Nostradamus predicted that the three anti-christs would spur the end of the world or something like that.

scary

[Inv3rted]

scary

You're an idiot.

[Niliscro]

2012 only has weight among the Mayans.  It's the end of the final cycle of rebirth, after which there will be no rebirth.
If you believe an Abrahamic religion, you're a heretic.  If you believe in nothing, you're now part of the Mayan belief system.  If you believe in something more flexible like Hinduism, well, have fun.

[Mateo]

Inverted, his belief that Nostradamus' predictions will be correct is justified so long as you believe he could see the future. A decent brown townogy of this would be a slot machine. Say a person wins the slots on his first try. I'm guessing anyone would say "oh, you're lucky, whatever." But, say he wins 100 times in a row. You would be the person who says "He still will probably not win the 101st roll. The machine isn't broken, he's just been lucky so far, but he still has just as much of a chance to lose as he did the 1st time he tried the slots." Riot would say "No, no way will he lose. The machine is rigged, he is definitely going to win again."

Now, please note I am not saying you are wrong. I am saying you calling him an idiot is unjustified. How can you know if he will win the next one? Well, there are 2 ways. Either let him try one more time and see what happens, or inspect the machine. If it's rigged he will win, if it isn't then it is all up to chance. Since we currently have no way to "inspect the machine," this is all guesswork until the time of his predictions actually come.

Please note that I have only heard small tidbits about Nostradamus, and that I actually do not know much about his predictions. This whole scenario relies wholly on all of his predictions thus far having come true. If any one of his predictions have not come true the whole scenario is invalid and you are entirely just when you call Riot an idiot.

[Niliscro]

Problem is with mathematical probability such as with slot machines is that as you win more rolls in a row, your chances become even lower for the next roll.

[Mateo]

Problem is with mathematical probability such as with slot machines is that as you win more rolls in a row, your chances become even lower for the next roll.

No. No not at all. The probability for winning a bunch of times in a row gets smaller the more you expect to win, however no matter how many times you win the chance of you winning the next one is exactly the same.

[Niliscro]

No. No not at all. The probability for winning a bunch of times in a row gets smaller the more you expect to win, however no matter how many times you win the chance of you winning the next one is exactly the same.

That's not mathematical.  Believing your thoughts will affect the outcome is more or less mysticism/ESP.  With a slot machine, if you have a 1/10 chance to win and you win 5 times in a row, you should lose the next 50 rolls.

[Ryuu]

Im not sure if anyone has mentioned this yet, but the world isn't going to end according to the Mayan calender.
The human race is soposed to starte its 6th cycle, becasue we, and by we I mean the Mayans, think they angerd the gods, so they predicted when the gods would make new humans, and they came up with 2012. Apperently, the frist humans were mud people. The gods slowly shaped and stuff, and now we're here.

[Mateo]

That's not mathematical.  Believing your thoughts will affect the outcome is more or less mysticism/ESP.  With a slot machine, if you have a 1/10 chance to win and you win 5 times in a row, you should lose the next 50 rolls.

That isn't how it works, though. You will still have a 1/10 chance to win the next roll.

We are assuming he has already won all 100 rolls before. He has 1 roll left, which means he has a 1/10 chance to get that last roll.

However, the likelyhood of getting 101 wins in a row would be .1^101. This is different than getting 1 win after already getting 100 wins. assuming he has already gotten all 100 wins, the probability he would win the next would be (1^100)*.1, or 1/10.