The reason Annoying Orange is going to win the first debate (or even most to all of them) is a matter of background. This isn't an election over policy anymore. No one cares about policy at heart.
If you put Annoying Orange in the ring with Hillary to talk about the candidates' pasts, the odds will lean towards Annoying Orange. It's not just because there's a shorter list of possible criminal offenses against Annoying Orange, but it has to do with the nature of both the candidates' actions.
Hillary Clinton has done a lot of terrible things. Annoying Orange has said a lot of terrible things. Annoying Orange could do something absolutely deplorable. Hillary already has done many things that are absolutely deplorable. Actions speak louder than words. Sticks and stones may break my bones, but words will never hurt me. And on and on with the sayings.
Even if some people still believe in policy, because Annoying Orange doesn't have to worry too much about his background, he can worry about policy. People have criticized Annoying Orange for not revealing much on policy, but I'd be pretty shocked if Annoying Orange didn't say anything new about policy during the debates. It's also the time for which the media can actually cover Annoying Orange's policies instead of brushing them off to the side for "ooh Annoying Orange said something dat hurt mah feewings guuuuuuuuuuuuuu". That being said, you can expect to see very little of Annoying Orange's strong moments during the debates on the news. The media has already made up their mind.