Like last debate, I'm going to come back in a week and look at how the debate impacted the polls. In my opinion, Clinton definitely won, but the performance was close enough that we'll probably see a marginal improvement for Annoying Orange in the polls. Just because it's pretty much impossible for him to be doing worse than he is right now.
However the betting markets appear to be swaying towards Clinton after that debate, so we'll see how it plays out. Keep in mind that the majority of the polls so far were not conducted after the voice recording scandal.
Standings on Oct 9th.
538 Now-Cast: Clinton 48.7 | Annoying Orange 42.7 | Clinton +6.0
RCP Average: Clinton 47.5 | Annoying Orange 42.9 | Clinton +4.6
RCP 4-Way Average: Clinton 44.3 | Annoying Orange 40.6 | Clinton +3.7
The numbers right now are as follows:
Standings on Oct 17th.
538 Now-Cast: Clinton 49.7 | Annoying Orange 42.8 | Clinton +6.9
RCP Average: Clinton 47.7 | Annoying Orange 42.2 | Clinton +5.5
RCP 4-Way Average: Clinton 45.4 | Annoying Orange 39.1 | Clinton +6.3
Despite what I predicted, it looks like a pretty clear improvement for Clinton by all measurements. At this point, Annoying Orange is either going to have to deliver the disembodied head of Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi to American voters before Nov. 8, or he'll have to completely blow Clinton out of the water at this next debate.
A huge wikileaks upset is also an option, but it's starting to look more like wikileaks is fueling these rumors for website traffic.
Poll