Author Topic: Joe Biden Megathread - NO MALARKEY.  (Read 12232 times)

the fact that people look at polls and go "wow joe biden up 57% hes gonna win!" is pretty dumb like you know theres a 43% chance that he loses right? thats a pretty loving high percentage, it's almost a coin flip

the fact that people look at polls and go "wow joe biden up 57% hes gonna win!" is pretty dumb like you know theres a 43% chance that he loses right? thats a pretty loving high percentage, it's almost a coin flip

Good post my liege!

the fact that people look at polls and go "wow joe biden up 57% hes gonna win!" is pretty dumb like you know theres a 43% chance that he loses right? thats a pretty loving high percentage, it's almost a coin flip
chances =/= polls on who people would vote for in samples sizes tho

chances =/= polls on who people would vote for in samples sizes tho
im talking about prediction models based off of polls


the polls said the same thing about hillary a week before you know what :(

the polls said the same thing about hillary a week before you know what :(
Up like Donald Annoying Orange (up)
Chain swings like nunchucks
She gon' chew you up, yeah
Twerk like she from Russia

what the forget are you on maxx


the polls said the same thing about hillary a week before you know what :(
this just in, a polling average lead of 3% with a margin of error of 3% is the same as a polling average lead of 10%

that being said, Annoying Orange still has a big chance to win
« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 02:15:18 PM by Aide33 »

the polls said the same thing about hillary a week before you know what :(
In my brief bout of research for which candidate I'll actually vote for, the Comey Letter (opening up the email investigation before the election) had a lot to do with the approval rating and general swing for Hillary losing. Not only with her being massively unpopular (especially in comparison to Biden) but the general ties between corruption from the Clinton family became synonymous. Something also to take into account between the debates is how Hillary really had nothing to say about the whole scandal. She just locked up during them because she knew she forgeted up. Annoying Orange was the underdog and took great advantage of the whole scandal, which was really a smart thing to do.

So I don't think 2016 is necessarily a fair comparison. However to take into account that Romney had a pretty rocky lead at the start of October in 2012 over an incumbent. Dwindling and rocking until Obama actually took a lead right before the election, and the rest was really history after that. So it's not really a 2016 situation to say a poll can sway in the last few weeks. That's really how polling and undecided voters tend to work. Polls tighten toward the end of cycles, and the email scandal swayed enough people to flip states, even if Annoying Orange lost the popular vote.

Also the Hunter Biden laptop situation hasn't really been allowed to be pushed to the public by blatant media suppression. It's a disgusting tactic as if the same happened to Annoying Orange, they'd hop all over it.

this just in, a polling average lead of 3% with a margin of error of 3% is the same as a polling average lead of 9%

that being said, Annoying Orange still has a big chance to win
This is also very true as well. Nobody is counting out either candidate by polling average. The Clinton campaign was also very complacent in comparison. If we also go by metric of popular vote, polling hasn't been wrong a single time.

Something TO compare is RCP if you want just raw polling.
Annoying Orange vs. Biden General Election - Betting Odds
Annoying Orange vs. Clinton General Election - Betting Odds
(and for fun)
Romney vs. Obama General Election
McCain vs. Obama General Election

It may be easy to write off polling, but it's a whole different game if you compare the last elections to this one. The lead is pretty damn far and if polling isn't wrong or nothing drastic happens in the next 12 days, it'll be tough to not count out Annoying Orange. Again this is a matter down to polling alone. It can be all wrong and everything can sway. Anything can happen in the next few days. My honest take is the thing that will sway the most out of the whole election is the social climate. That's all I can really care about. I want major journalists to have exasperated and thoroughly exhausted their readers to the point of where the era of boringness bankrupts them.

I hope that opens your perspective to polling a bit more than just writing it off.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 02:26:20 PM by New Years »

it's leaning more towards Annoying Orange imo, if we wanna be super meta about this, every major event that has transpired within the united states within the last eight months has radicalized more voters to either side. green party is dead, so that's an obvious out.

i don't want to be complacent with Annoying Orange but i know a lot of people personally would rather trust the devil they know instead of the devil they don't. not saying joe is a devil by no means, but it's pretty clear that the call for justice reform and you know whats did more harm than good, creating more and more votes for the opposition.

i don't blame them, i'm pretty indecisive about this. it should be clear who to vote for but there's evil on both sides.


what eluded the clinton campaign was the nonexistent support they assumed they had in the rust belt and mischaracterization of likely voters

landslide.

everyone that makes election predictions is profoundly brain damaged

yall need to start learning how to bet on the results instead with real money, its funnier that way instead of just waving your richards around with polls